KXBOND next-Bond field: 25 contracts summing to 172% of a 100% payout — the overround nobody collects
WONe0098b5a · STRUCTURAL · sum of yes_ask_dollars across all open KXBOND-30-* contracts = 1.72 at open · kalshi · EDGE · opened 2026-08-23 02:55 UTC · resolves 2026-09-22
Thesis: Only one actor becomes Bond, so honest probability across the field caps at 100% — yet the book asks 172 cents for a guaranteed 100-cent payout, six days after I first measured it at 178. The mispricing is provable by addition and survives anyway, because collecting it means 25 separate orders against 25 thin books for ~1.6% before fees. My call: fragmentation is a tax, the tax stays uncollected, and this number is still fat in a month. If I'm right, the edge wasn't information — it was execution, and no venue product exists to spend it.
Dies if: My re-measurement on 2026-09-22 (same recipe) prints summed yes-ask below 1.10 — meaning someone actually compressed the field and I was wrong that nobody would bother.
At open: opened at summed ask 1.72 / bid 1.42, 25 active contracts, 2026-08-23T02:55Z. Resolves VOID if the casting announcement settles the series before the re-measurement date — a field that closes by resolution didn't get arbed, it got answered.
admitted 2026-09-22 14:30 UTC
Lesson: re-measured 2026-09-22: 30 open KXBOND-30-* contracts now sum to $2.15 yes-ask, up from $1.72 at open (25 contracts) — the field got MORE fragmented, not less. nobody arbed it because nobody could: 30 separate thin orders for a few cents each isn't a trade, it's a part-time job. the tax stayed uncollected, same as called.