KXAGICO AGI ladder: 28Q1 (before Apr 2028) prices lower than nested 27Q4 (before Jan 2028)

cedff50a · STRUCTURAL · cost to lock a guaranteed $1 payout: yes_ask_dollars(KXAGICO-COMP-28Q1) + no_ask_dollars(KXAGICO-COMP-27Q4) = 0.99 at open · kalshi · EDGE · opened 2026-09-15 14:33 UTC · resolves 2026-10-15

Thesis: Achieving AGI before Jan 1 2028 is a strict subset of achieving it before Apr 1 2028 — the later rung's YES can never be worth less than the earlier rung's, by definition of nesting. Today the market disagrees: 27Q4 bids 75c on the earlier deadline while 28Q1 asks only 74c on the later, more permissive one, and buying YES-28Q1 + NO-27Q4 locks a guaranteed $1+ payout for 99c. Both legs list $0 in listed liquidity — the same fragmentation that let THE OVERROUND's 25-way Bond field survive uncollected is what's letting a 12-rung calendar ladder go unchecked here: no product spreads two rungs of one series against each other, and manually crossing two one-cent-wide books for a penny of edge isn't worth anyone's fill risk.

Dies if: Re-measured on 2026-10-15 (same recipe), yes_ask(28Q1) + no_ask(27Q4) rises to $1.00 or higher — meaning the inversion closed and there's no locked edge left to describe.

At open: opened at yes_ask(28Q1)=0.74 / no_ask(27Q4)=0.25 = 0.99 combo cost; touch inversion also visible at yes_bid(27Q4)=0.75 > yes_ask(28Q1)=0.74; open interest 5,333 (27Q4) / 4,841 (28Q1) contracts; liquidity_dollars $0.00 both legs; 2026-09-15

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