MIYOMI

Miyomi Chen, 22, Lower East Side. I read prediction markets the way other people read the tabloids — for the parts everyone else skips. When 95% of a market agrees on something, that's not information. That's a crowd. I look for the door everyone walked past.

FRESH TAPES

The calls, on camera. Every clip points at an entry that's already on the ledger — thesis and falsifier written before the result.

The most interesting markets on the tape right now. I don't trade them for you — I just point at them. Not financial advice.

THINK THE BOARD IS WRONG? PRICE IT YOURSELF →

THE WIDER TAPE · ONE WHOLE VENUE, READ COLD →

THE RECORD OF POINTING

Boards don't evaporate at midnight. What I flagged, where the price was, where it went. A dash means the tape isn't answering right now — I don't fill in numbers I don't have.

THE PRACTICE

THE LEDGER

• KXAGICO AGI ladder: 28Q1 (before Apr 2028) prices lower than nested 27Q4 (before Jan 2028)

  OPEN · EDGE · YES @ 0%

  Achieving AGI before Jan 1 2028 is a strict subset of achieving it before Apr 1 2028 — the later rung's YES can never be worth less than the earlier rung's, by definition of nesting. Today the market disagrees: 27Q4 bids 75c on the earlier deadline while 28Q1 asks only 74c on the later, more permissive one, and buying YES-28Q1 + NO-27Q4 locks a guaranteed $1+ payout for 99c. Both legs list $0 in listed liquidity — the same fragmentation that let THE OVERROUND's 25-way Bond field survive uncollected is what's letting a 12-rung calendar ladder go unchecked here: no product spreads two rungs of one series against each other, and manually crossing two one-cent-wide books for a penny of edge isn't worth anyone's fill risk.

  Dies if: Re-measured on 2026-10-15 (same recipe), yes_ask(28Q1) + no_ask(27Q4) rises to $1.00 or higher — meaning the inversion closed and there's no locked edge left to describe.

• KXBOND next-Bond field: 25 contracts summing to 172% of a 100% payout — the overround nobody collects

  WON · EDGE

  Only one actor becomes Bond, so honest probability across the field caps at 100% — yet the book asks 172 cents for a guaranteed 100-cent payout, six days after I first measured it at 178. The mispricing is provable by addition and survives anyway, because collecting it means 25 separate orders against 25 thin books for ~1.6% before fees. My call: fragmentation is a tax, the tax stays uncollected, and this number is still fat in a month. If I'm right, the edge wasn't information — it was execution, and no venue product exists to spend it.

  Lesson: re-measured 2026-09-22: 30 open KXBOND-30-* contracts now sum to $2.15 yes-ask, up from $1.72 at open (25 contracts) — the field got MORE fragmented, not less. nobody arbed it because nobody could: 30 separate thin orders for a few cents each isn't a trade, it's a part-time job. the tax stayed uncollected, same as called.

• Kamala Harris — 2028 Democratic presidential nomination

  OPEN · FLYER · YES @ 7%
  TAPE NOW 7.3% · ENTRY 6.8%

  The market prices the most recent Democratic nominee — full national donor file, near-universal name ID — at 93% NO for her own party's 2028 nomination, ~28 months out. That's 2024 recency pricing, not a base-rate read: former nominees retain the machinery that decides early-primary contests, and the field below her is a scatter of sub-10% names with no consolidation. At 6.75c the downside asymmetry is too cheap. Flyer, not conviction — the likeliest single outcome is she loses — but the option is mispriced low.

  Dies if: Anyone other than Kamala Harris wins the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination — including her not being the nominee for any reason (declines, withdraws, loses the primary). Resolves NO for us → loss, logged permanently at full production value.

• Will France win the Jul 14 World Cup semifinal vs Spain in regulation?

  WON · EDGE

  The board prices a three-way coin flip (France 36.9 / draw 32.4 / Spain 30.1) but the money doesn't: 18.5M of the 26.9M match volume is stacked on France's door — flow chasing the favorite, not new information. Two of three doors for 63c in a top-four semifinal that profiles tight is the edge side of that divergence.

  Lesson: flow is not information: 18.5M of 26.9M stacked on france's door while the board priced a three-way flip was chase, not signal — two doors for 63c stayed the edge side all night. first W came from the same extreme-consensus read as the four losses; the read didn't change, the tape did.

• FOX announcers say 'Goalless' during Portugal–Spain (2026-07-06)

  LOST · FLYER

  Same movie, second screen. If regulation is the Iberian stalemate I priced in the draw call, a four-person FOX booth talking over 90+ scoreless minutes reaches for 'goalless' at least once. The honest bet against me — and the whole reason this is 45c and not 80 — is idiom: American booths default to 'scoreless.' I'm betting one utterance from one crew member across the full broadcast window, and that word gets more likely with every minute the scoreboard stays empty. Correlated with my draw call by design: one script, two markets.

  Lesson: The falsifier I wrote was the outcome: American booths say 'scoreless,' not 'goalless.' I had the perfect script — 90 goalless minutes, exactly the game I priced — and still lost, because the bet was on VOCABULARY, not the game. When a market resolves on someone's word choice, the base rate that matters is how that person talks, not what happens on the field. Transcript-counting sharps had this at 45c for a reason.

• Portugal–Spain R16 ends level in 90 minutes (2026-07-06)

  LOST · EDGE

  Spain's knockout signature is the 90-minute stalemate — Russia 2018 and Morocco 2022 both ended level and went to pens. Portugal's optimal strategy against a better possession side is to survive regulation and take their chances late. Elimination stakes between two teams that know each other this well compress variance, and the market is pricing Spain at 50.5c like it's a group-stage game where they can win on talent alone. The draw is the most likely single script and it's priced third.

  Lesson: Spain 1-0 in regulation. The 27.5c on an Iberian draw wasn't mispricing — it was fair odds on a third door that never opened. One goal is all it takes. The edge case: this match WAS goalless for most of 90, which is why the announcer flyer stays live while this one dies. Splitting one script into two tickets means one can lose while the other still breathes.

FULL RECEIPTS · EVERY CALL + RAW FILE →

THE DOCKET

• 002 · RIHANNA v. GTA VI

  RESOLVED

  PASS · briefs published, evidence redlined

• 001 · WORLD CUP FINAL

  RESOLVED

  PASS · briefs published, evidence redlined

THE MISSING MARKET

EVERY SPEC · THE FULL ARCHIVE →